The latest poll from Busby's campaign shows that she now leads Republican Brian Bilbray by 7 percentage points! This is wonderful news coming from a congressional district with a R to D registration advantage of 50% to 32%.

From the Lake Research Partners:

"With three weeks to go before Election Day, Francine Busby has opened up a lead over Brian Bilbray, with 47% for Busby and 40% for Bilbray, with 1% for minor candidates Libertarian Paul King and Independent William Griffith and 12% undecided."

This poll was conducted May 12-15 and is the most recent poll of CA-50.

More from the LRP poll, under the fold...

Holy Crap, we've got 5 days until the special election to replace convicted felon Randy Duke Cunningham in CA-50.  And it's been an amazing couple of weeks.

First, simultaneous polls (internal and independent) indicated that Francine Busby (D) was the top candidate in the field of 14+, by a 3-1 margin over her closest Republican opponent.  Both pegged her support in the high 30s.  Not enough to win the seat without a June 6 runoff, but definitely respectable.  

Next came the excellent poll results from SUSA, the most accurate pollster of the 2004 elections, which indicated that Busby's support stands at about 45% of likely voters.  Then, in what should not have even been a surprise, we were blessed with Kaloogiangate--the fake Iraq photos that (I hope and pray) may have brought just enough exposure to this race to increase Busby's support to 50%+.  

According to a short, easily missed article on page 14 of Today's Los Angeles Times:

A defense contractor has agreed to plead guilty for his role in lavishing more than $1 million in gifts on former Rep. Randy "Duke" Cunningham (R, CA-50), two federal law enforcement officials said.

The defense contractor, Mitchell Wade, will be entering his guilty plea in a Washington D.C. federal district court later today.  The quoted officials refused to allow the use of their names in the article because the charges against the briber and the details of his plea agreement with prosecutors are not yet public.  

For three strong reasons, the Democrats will gain an additional seat in the House of Representatives this Spring.  The first is the taint which Randy "Duke" Cunningham's (R) criminal conduct has left on the GOP in CA-50, second is the number of Republican candidates running in the April 11 election, and the third is the date of the (potential) run-off election.

For those familiar with the upcoming Congressional election in CA-50, skip the blockquote below and continue on to read my reasons why Busby will win on April 11.